Draw odds

Two overcards in poker: six outs, sometimes

You missed the flop, but both your cards are higher than anything on it. Pair either one and you have top pair. Whether that wins is the real question.

• 6outs on the flop
• 12.8%to hit on the turn
• 24.1%by the river, if you see both

Count the outs

When the outs are not outs

A flush or a straight beats almost everything. Top pair does not. Before you count these six, ask what he has.

• Against one pair, like the nine, your six are live.
• Against two pair or a set, they are worth nothing. Pairing your ace still loses.
• Against a hand that shares one of your cards, like ace-nine, the aces give him two pair. Only the kings are left.

Even on your outs, you are not safe. On the turn, after any ace or king, at least 55 of the two-card hands he could hold still beat you. Top pair is a good hand, not the best one.

The odds on each card

Exact odds count 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn.

Which bets you can call

With one card to come, six clean outs cover a bet of up to about 17% of the pot. Since your outs are rarely all clean, ask for a better price than that.

Against top pair

Against 10♦9♣, every turn and river dealt, your ace and king win 22.1%. That is less than the 24.1% above. Some runouts pair you once and give him two pair or trips with the other card.

Two overcards plus a backdoor flush draw is a little better. Two overcards alone are often a fold.

Other draws

• Flush draw
• Open-ended straight draw
• Gutshot
• Straight flush draw
• Double gutshot
• Backdoor flush draw
• Set mining
• Try the quiz