Draw odds

Open-ended straight flush draw: fifteen outs

A flush draw and an open-ended straight draw in the same hand. It is one of the biggest draws in hold'em, and it is often ahead of a made hand.

• 15outs on the flop
• 31.9%to hit on the turn
• 54.1%by the river, if you see both

Count the outs, and count each card once

Counting a card twice is the most common mistake with big draws. Find the overlap first.

The odds on each card

Exact odds count 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn.

The rule of 4 says 60% here, and that is too high. With more than 8 outs, take away the outs above 8: you get 53%, close to the real 54.1%. See where the rule lies.

Which bets you can call

With one card to come, the price alone lets you call a bet up to about 88% of the pot. When he is all in, you can call any size by the price: with both cards to come, you hit more often than you miss.

Against top pair

Against A♣10♦, every turn and river dealt, your draw wins 56.8%. You have not made anything yet, and you are the favourite. That is why this hand can bet and raise, not just call.

One warning: not every out is clean. Only 3 of them leave you with the best possible hand on the turn. The low hearts make your flush, and a bigger heart can still beat it.

Other draws

• Flush draw
• Open-ended straight draw
• Gutshot
• Two overcards
• Double gutshot
• Backdoor flush draw
• Set mining
• Try the quiz