Poker math

How to count outs in poker, fast

An out is a card that wins the hand for you. Not a card that improves you. A card that wins. Count those, and only those.

Count from what you can see

Count only from the cards you can actually see: your two and the board. Cards that were folded, and the burn card, are unknown to you. Unknown is the same as in the deck. That is why the flop always leaves 47 unseen cards, no matter how many players folded.

The four shapes to know by heart

Fast players are not calculating. They have seen the shape before. These four cover most draws you will ever hold.

Exact odds from the flop, 47 unseen cards. "River" is by the river, and assumes you see both cards, which you often do not. See the rule of 2 and 4.

Not every card that helps is an out

So the honest count here is 4, plus a little for the aces. Counting every card that "improves" you is how people talk themselves into calls.

Half outs

Some cards win for you and also help him. Count those as half.

• The card that makes your flush also pairs the board, so a full house is possible.
• The card that makes your straight also puts three of a suit out, so his flush may come in.

When in doubt, count it as half. Being a little low costs less than being sure and wrong.

Two overcards: 6 outs, sometimes

With two cards higher than the board and nothing else, you have 6 outs to a top pair: 12.8% on the turn. Those outs are only good if top pair wins, and against a set or two pair, they are worth nothing.

From outs to a decision

Outs are the first number. The second is the price, from pot odds. If your chance to hit beats the price, call. If not, fold, unless money you win later makes up the difference.