Draw odds

Open-ended straight draw odds, worked out

Four cards in a row, open at both ends. A card at either end makes a straight. That is two ranks, four cards each.

• 8outs on the flop
• 17.0%to hit on the turn
• 31.5%by the river, if you see both

Count the outs

The odds on each card

Exact odds count 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn.

Use the both-cards row only when someone is all in or you are sure nobody bets the turn. Most of the time you are buying one card.

Not every end is the same

When a six comes, nobody can have a bigger straight. When a jack comes, a player holding a queen and an eight, or a king and a queen, now beats you. On the turn, 28 of the two-card hands he could hold beat your jack-high straight. None beat the six. So 4 of your outs are clean, and the other four are a little dirty. Count them as outs, and remember which ones they are.

Which bets you can call

With one card to come, the price alone lets you call a bet up to about 26% of the pot. A half-pot bet is already too big. Calling it anyway is only right if you will win more after you hit.

Against top pair

Against A♣10♣, every turn and river dealt, your draw wins 34.2%. The extra over 31.5% comes from runouts that give you two pair or trips.

A double gutshot has the same 8 outs, and it is much easier to miss.

Other draws

• Flush draw
• Gutshot
• Two overcards
• Straight flush draw
• Double gutshot
• Backdoor flush draw
• Set mining
• Try the quiz