Draw odds

Gutshot straight draw odds: four outs

A gutshot is a straight with a hole in the middle. One rank fills it. That is four cards, and it misses far more often than it hits.

You
Seven, eight, nine, jack. Only a ten fills it.

Count the outs

You hold 98. The flop is J72.

  • You need a ten for seven to jack.
  • There are four tens, and you can see none. 4 outs.

When the ten comes here, nobody can beat your straight. That is the one good thing about this draw.

The odds on each card

Cards to comeExactRule of 2 and 4
Flop to turn, one card8.5%8%
Turn to river, one card8.7%8%
Flop to river, both cards16.5%16%

Exact odds count 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn.

Which bets you can call

He betsPriceOne cardHe is all in
a third of the pot20.0%foldfold
half the pot25.0%foldfold
two thirds of the pot28.6%foldfold
the pot33.3%foldfold

With one card to come, a gutshot covers a bet of up to about 10% of the pot. That is a very small bet. Against anything bigger, a lone gutshot is a fold by the price.

Three things can change that:

Against top pair

Against JQ, every turn and river dealt, the gutshot wins 20.3%. Some of that is runouts where you pair twice. It is still a hand that loses four times in five.

Do not mix it up with a double gutshot, which has twice the outs.

Other draws

Off the Felt drills the price against the draw until a gutshot fold is automatic.

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