Draw odds

Flush draw odds, from the flop and the turn

You have four cards of one suit. One more makes a flush. Here is how often it comes, and what that is worth when someone bets.

• 9outs on the flop
• 19.1%to hit on the turn
• 35.0%by the river, if you see both

Count the outs

Nine is the first number most players learn. Count it anyway, every time. If the board pairs, his full house can beat your flush. If his flush is bigger, yours loses too. Here, a bigger club is out there for some of his hands on every one of your outs.

The odds on each card

Exact odds count 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn. Cards that were folded count as unseen.

The last row is the one people lean on too much. You only see both cards when nobody bets the turn, or when someone is all in now. If he will bet again, you are buying one card. Use the first row.

Which bets you can call

The price is your call divided by the pot after your call. If your chance to hit is bigger than the price, call.

With one card to come, a flush draw can call a bet of up to about 31% of the pot on price alone. Bigger than that, you need money you will win later, after you hit, to make up the gap.

Against top pair

Put him on Q♠10♦, top pair, and deal every turn and river. Your flush draw wins 37.7% of the time. That is a little more than the flush alone, because a few runouts give you two pair or trips instead. This share is your equity.

Other draws

• Open-ended straight draw
• Gutshot
• Two overcards
• Straight flush draw
• Double gutshot
• Backdoor flush draw
• Set mining
• Try the quiz