Off the FeltPoker math
What is equity in poker? Three worked spots
Your equity is your share of the pot. Deal the rest of the hand out every possible way, and count how often you win. Ties count as half.
Equity in plain words
On the flop there are 990 ways to deal the turn and the river. If your hand wins in half of them, your equity is 50%. It says nothing about this one pot. It says what happens over many pots like it, and that is what the money follows.
Outs are the shortcut to equity for a draw. They miss the rare runouts, like two cards in a row that make you two pair. The spots below are exact: every one of the 990 runouts, dealt and counted.
Spot one: nut flush draw against top pair
You: A5. Him: KQ. Flop: K92.
- Outs: 9 hearts, plus 3 aces that pair you above his kings. 12 in all.
- Your equity: 45.9%.
A draw this big is close to even with a made hand. That is why it can call a big bet, or make one.
Spot two: open-ender against an overpair
You: J10. Him: AA. Flop: 982.
- Outs: 4 queens and 4 sevens. 8 in all, 31.5% by the river.
- Your equity: 34.2%. The extra comes from runouts like a jack and a ten: two pair beats his aces.
The outs count gets you close. The small runouts are why exact equity sits a little above it.
Spot three: flush draw and open-ender against top pair
You: J10. Him: AQ. Flop: Q93.
- Outs: 9 hearts, plus the 6 kings and eights that are not hearts. 15 in all.
- Your equity: 56.8%.
The draw is the favourite. He has the best hand right now, and he is still behind. Equity is about the river, not about who is ahead on the flop.
Using equity: compare it with the price
Equity is only half of a decision. The other half is the price from pot odds. Facing a half-pot bet, you need 25%. Every spot above clears that if you get to see both cards.
With one card to come, the numbers drop by about half. The rule of 2 and 4 is the quick way to say how much.
Against a range, not one hand
At the table you do not know his two cards. You have a guess: a range of hands. Your equity against the range is the average over every hand in it. The habit is the same. Count what beats you, count what you beat, and ask how sure you really are.
Fold equity is a different thing: the extra you win when a bet makes him fold. It is real, but it is not in any of the numbers above.
Off the Felt drills equity against one hand and against a range, and asks how wide your guess should be.
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